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Climate Variability, Predictability and Climate Risks: A by H. Wanner (Editor), M. Grosjean (Editor), R. Rothlisberger

By H. Wanner (Editor), M. Grosjean (Editor), R. Rothlisberger (Editor), E. Xoplaki (Editor)

This booklet offers an built-in review of concerns relating to weather variability and alter, predictability and dangers. It info either the technical points of variability and abrupt weather swap and the rural and low in cost affects and effects.

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Extra resources for Climate Variability, Predictability and Climate Risks: A European Perspective

Sample text

This scaling was done in a reduced spatio-temporal space applying optimal fingerprinting (or optimal detection method; cf. Weaver and Zwiers 2000; Zwiers 2002). The strength of the method is that the prediction is minimally affected by the uncertainty in climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. In other words, the models are not required to simulate the amplitude of the response accurately, but merely its structure. A limitation is that this approach is not applicable if for example the balance between GHG and sulphate aerosol forcing changes with time.

For example recent observational studies (Curry et al. 2003) showed that the anthropogenic signal is evident in the salinity field in the Atlantic Ocean during the past four decades. This suggests that the salinity field could serve as a potential constraint. Here the focus was on estimating the uncertainty of climate projections. Next, we continue to address probabilistic methods and introduce quantitative statistical measures of forecast uncertainty, with a specific focus on the interface to operational application and the end-user perspective.

Clim Dyn 7:111–119 Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Harris IC, Jones PD, Shiyatov SG, Vaganov EA (2001) Lowfrequency temperature variations from a northern tree-ring density network. J Geophys Res 106:2929– 2941 B¨untgen U, Esper J, Frank DC, Nicolussi K, Schmidhalter M (2005) A 1052-year tree-ring proxy for Alpine summer temperatures. Clim Dyn 25:141–153 Casty C, Handorf D, Raible CC, Luterbacher J, Weisheimer A, Xoplaki E, Gonzalez-Rouco JF, Dethloff K, Wanner H (2005a) Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic-European sector 1659–1990.

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